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Whtie Papers
Explore in-depth research and position papers.

The Death of Omnibus Risk in OTC Markets

Omnibus risk structures were effective in an environment of limited scale and homogeneous counterparties. As institutional OTC markets have expanded, those same structures have become sources of hidden concentration and balance-sheet fragility.

Segregation represents a structural response to this shift. By localising exposure and enforcing attribution, it transforms systemic risk into manageable, unit-level risk. The decline of omnibus risk is therefore not a regulatory artefact, but a consequence of how institutional markets now operate.

The implication is clear: resilience in modern OTC markets depends less on monitoring pooled exposure and more on designing systems where exposure cannot silently aggregate in the first place.

Visa-UnionPay Partnership Reveals Correspondent Banking's Structural Limits: What Corporate Treasury Teams Need to Know

This week, two of the world's largest payment networks announced they would finally enable direct money movement into mainland China, a corridor that has been operationally critical for decades. For treasury teams managing liquidity across Asia-Pacific, this partnership isn't a milestone. It's confirmation that the infrastructure they depend on was never designed to move capital at the speed their operations require.

Visa and UnionPay International announced at Web Summit Qatar that they will connect Visa Direct to UnionPay's MoneyExpress platform, enabling cross-border payments to more than 95 percent of UnionPay debit cardholders in mainland China. The service is expected to launch in the first half of 2026. Visa's global head of Visa Direct described it as "real, critical infrastructure operating at massive scale, speed and reliability," while UnionPay's CEO called it "a precise alignment of the two sides' strengths."

The announcement matters less for what it enables than for what it reveals. China is the world's third-largest remittance destination, receiving an estimated $48 billion in inflows in 2024. Yet until this partnership, one of the most economically significant corridors in global payments required bilateral workarounds, nested correspondent chains, and manual reconciliation. If Visa and UnionPay, networks with combined global reach exceeding 200 countries, are only now establishing direct connectivity, the structural limitations of correspondent banking are not operational inefficiencies. They are design constraints.

Corporate treasury teams operating across Asia-Pacific understand these constraints intimately, even if they don't frame them in infrastructure terms. The pain shows up as CNY balances that can't be repatriated without a week of lead time. As SGD working capital that sits idle because sweeping arrangements don't extend to every legal entity. As the gap between when a subsidiary needs liquidity and when the correspondent chain actually delivers it. The Bank for International Settlements has documented this problem at the system level: payment service providers must hold sufficient liquidity in all currencies in which they transact, and when they cannot readily exchange funds, their liquidity becomes "tied up in individual currency pots."

The cost structure tells the same story. Research from McKinsey and the BIS estimates that nostro-vostro liquidity, the capital banks park in correspondent accounts to fund cross-border payments, represents the single largest cost component in international payments, exceeding foreign exchange, compliance, and claims operations. Regional banks relying on correspondent networks face cost-to-serve figures roughly 50 percent higher than fintech competitors, in part because they carry "trapped nostro-vostro liquidity across institutions they seldom use." The U.S. Treasury has noted that in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, more than 10 percent of wholesale payments take longer than a day to reach the end customer, a delay that compounds for treasury teams managing multi-entity cash positions.

The correspondent banking system was built for a different era. It emerged when cross-border payments were discrete events rather than continuous flows, when settlement windows were measured in days rather than hours, and when the velocity of capital movement was constrained by the limits of telex and paper documentation. The architecture assumes bilateral trust relationships between institutions, with liquidity pre-positioned in nostro accounts at each counterparty bank. This model works for high-value, low-frequency transactions between established financial institutions. It breaks down when applied to the operational tempo of modern treasury management, where liquidity needs shift intraday, where entities span multiple jurisdictions, and where the cost of trapped capital is measured against working capital efficiency targets.

The retreat of correspondent banking has made these problems worse, not better. BIS research shows a sustained decline in correspondent relationships across all regions over the past decade, even as cross-border payment volumes have increased. Greater concentration among fewer correspondent banks has contributed to what the BIS describes as "rent-seeking," with transaction costs rising in corridors where access to correspondent services has become more limited. For treasury teams, this means fewer options for moving money, longer chains when they do, and higher costs at each link.

The Visa-UnionPay announcement represents one response to this structural gap: network partnerships that establish direct connectivity between previously siloed systems. Similar efforts are underway across Asia-Pacific, where the region leads in implementing interlinking arrangements between domestic payment systems. Thailand and Singapore established the first instant payment system link in 2021, with additional bilateral connections following between Singapore and India, Thailand and Malaysia, and others. Indonesia has announced plans for QR code links with China and Japan. The nonprofit Nexus Global Payments is working to create multilateral infrastructure that would allow cross-border instant payments through a shared node and common system.

These initiatives share a common logic: bypass the correspondent chain by connecting payment systems directly, eliminating the nostro pre-funding requirement and the settlement delays that come with it. The BIS Innovation Hub's Project mBridge, involving central banks from China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, has tested a multi-CBDC platform designed to enable instant cross-border payments and foreign exchange transactions, with estimated cost reductions of up to 50 percent across nostro-vostro liquidity, treasury operations, compliance, and foreign exchange.

For corporate treasury, the operational question is not whether these alternative rails will eventually reach their corridors. It's how to manage liquidity in the interim, and how to position for a multi-rail future where the choice of settlement infrastructure becomes a working capital optimization lever rather than a fixed constraint.

The Visa-UnionPay partnership won't solve trapped capital problems for corporate treasury. It's focused primarily on remittances and B2C disbursements, not intercompany flows or working capital repatriation. But it does something more important: it makes visible the gap between where correspondent banking infrastructure is and where treasury operations need it to be. When two payment networks with combined reach into virtually every economy on earth announce a partnership to enable basic corridor connectivity in 2025, the message is clear. The problem isn't treasury execution. The problem is that the rails were never built for this.

References

[1] Visa press release: Visa Direct and UnionPay International Will Extend Global Money Movement Network to Billions of Cards in Chinese Mainland

[2] World Bank: In 2024, remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries are expected to reach $685 billion

[3] Bank for International Settlements: Exploring multilateral platforms for cross-border payments

[4] BIS Working Paper No 1112: Trust bridges and money flows (McKinsey data on nostro-vostro costs)

[5] McKinsey: How Asian banks can regain the cross-border payments crown

[6] U.S. Treasury: Remarks by Assistant Secretary for International Finance Brent Neiman on the U.S. Cross-Border Payments Agenda

[7] Bank of England: Cross-border payments

[8] BIS: On the global retreat of correspondent banks, BIS Quarterly Review March 2020

[9] BIS CPMI: Moving on up - results of the 2024 cross-border payments monitoring survey

[10] IMF: Southeast Asia's Payment Push

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